Energy Realism: An Analysis of Anton Lang’s Work on Australian Power Generation
Anton Lang, widely known in the Australian energy discourse by his pseudonym “TonyfromOz,” has established himself as one of the most persistent and data-driven critics of the rapid transition to renewable energy in Australia. Operating primarily through platforms like JoNova and the Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Lang’s work is characterized by a granular, almost forensic examination of the National Electricity Market (NEM) data provided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). His contributions focus on the technical realities of electrical engineering, grid stability, and the inherent limitations of intermittent energy sources. This essay explores Lang’s multi-faceted analysis of Australian power generation, ranging from his documentation of “wind droughts” to his advocacy for nuclear energy as the only viable alternative to coal.
The Methodology of a “Wind Watcher”
At the core of Lang’s work is his “Wind Watcher” series, a long-running project where he tracks the actual output of every wind farm in the NEM. While politicians and advocates often speak in terms of “nameplate capacity”—the theoretical maximum a generator can produce—Lang focuses on “delivered power.” By meticulously recording half-hourly data, he highlights the discrepancy between the billions of dollars invested in wind infrastructure and the actual megawatt-hours (MWh) delivered to the grid.
Lang’s methodology is rooted in the concept of the Capacity Factor (CF). He frequently demonstrates that while coal-fired plants often operate at capacity factors of 70% to 90%, wind and solar in Australia typically struggle to maintain averages above 30%. His work argues that relying on a source with such a low and unpredictable CF necessitates an almost 100% redundant backup system, which he contends is an economic and engineering absurdity.
The Discovery of “Wind Droughts”
Perhaps Lang’s most significant contribution to the energy debate is his documentation of “wind droughts.” Alongside fellow researcher Paul Miskelly, Lang was among the first to publicize the fact that low-wind events are not merely local but can be “synoptic”—covering the entire south-eastern Australian grid for days at a time.
Through his analysis of AEMO records, Lang has identified numerous instances where wind generation across the entire NEM (spanning Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania) has fallen to less than 5% of its installed capacity. He points out that these droughts often coincide with high-pressure systems during winter or summer peaks when demand is at its highest. Lang’s work poses a fundamental challenge to the “the wind is always blowing somewhere” mantra, showing that when a large high-pressure cell sits over the Great Australian Bight, the entire fleet of thousands of turbines can fall silent simultaneously.
Solar Intermittency and the “Duck Curve”
Lang’s analysis extends to solar power, where he focuses on the “intrinsic intermittency” of the sun. He often uses the analogy of a “flickering candle” to describe solar output, which is not only absent at night but highly variable during the day due to cloud cover.
He has been a vocal critic of the “Duck Curve” phenomenon in the Australian grid, where high levels of rooftop solar during the day suppress demand for base-load power, only for demand to spike sharply in the evening as the sun sets. Lang argues that this “ramping” requirement places immense mechanical stress on aging coal-fired boilers, which were designed to run at a steady state. By forcing these plants to cycle up and down, he contends that the transition is effectively “killing” the reliable generators it still depends on for night-time power.
The Case for Base-Load and Dispatchable Power
Central to Lang’s philosophy is the necessity of “base-load” power. He defines this not just as cheap electricity, but as the “spinning reserve” and “inertia” required to keep the grid’s frequency stable at 50Hz. Lang frequently explains the physics of heavy rotating masses in coal and gas turbines, which provide a buffer against sudden frequency drops.
He argues that synchronous condensers and batteries, often touted as modern replacements for inertia, are “band-aids” that do not address the fundamental need for bulk, continuous power. In his view, the retirement of coal plants like Hazelwood and Liddell without equivalent dispatchable replacements is a recipe for systemic failure. He often highlights that whenever renewables fail, the grid is “saved” by gas peakers or remaining coal units, yet these very units are being made economically unviable by the preferential dispatch given to subsidized renewables.
The Nuclear Alternative
Unlike some critics of renewables who advocate solely for a return to coal, Lang has long been a proponent of nuclear energy for Australia. He argues that if the goal is truly to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining a modern, industrialized economy, nuclear is the only proven technology capable of replacing coal at scale.
Lang’s work on nuclear focuses on the “density” of energy. He compares the massive land footprint and raw material requirements of wind and solar farms to the compact, high-output nature of a nuclear reactor. He points out the irony that Australia, the world’s largest exporter of uranium, is the only G20 nation with a domestic ban on nuclear power. For Lang, the refusal to consider nuclear is evidence that the current transition is driven more by ideology than by engineering or environmental logic.
Economic Realism and the “Death Spiral”
The economic impact of the energy transition is a recurring theme in Lang’s writing. He critiques the “Levelized Cost of Energy” (LCOE) metrics used by organizations like the CSIRO, arguing they are misleading because they ignore the “integration costs”—the price of the extra transmission lines, batteries, and firmed backup required to make intermittent power reliable.
Lang posits that as more subsidized renewables enter the market, they drive down spot prices during the day, making it impossible for reliable base-load plants to turn a profit. This leads to early closures, which then causes price spikes during periods of low renewable output. He describes this as a “death spiral” for the grid, where the system becomes simultaneously more expensive and less reliable.
Conclusion
Anton Lang’s work serves as a technical counter-narrative to the prevailing energy policy in Australia. By focusing on the “unsexy” details of electrical engineering—amperes, frequency, inertia, and capacity factors—he strips away the rhetorical polish of the “green transition.” Whether or not one agrees with his skepticism of renewable energy, his meticulous documentation of the NEM’s performance provides a vital service. His work on wind droughts and the physics of grid stability highlights the immense challenges of decarbonizing a continent-wide power system. In the complex landscape of Australian energy, Lang remains a steadfast voice for “energy realism,” insisting that the laws of physics will always outlast the laws of politics.
The capacity factor analysis here is genuinely important for the debate. I remember working with grid operators couple years ago and the synchronous inertia problem Lang identifies is very real, especially for islanded grids like Australia's. The wind drought documentation is particularly valuable because it challanges the geographic diversity assumption that often gets presented as a solution. However, the baseload framing sometimes oversimplifies how modern grids can operate with high penetration renewables when paired with proper storage and demand response. Still, the cost transparency point about integration expenses being excluded from LCOE calculations is spot-on.