Defusing the wind drought trap, revised
Can the US escape from the wind drought trap? First printed in The Australian Spectator, February 2025.
The US was only one Democrat Administration away from disastrous power failures because the country is in the jaws of the wind drought trap. It is up to the Trump Administration to get them out, and to show the way for all the other western nations where suicidal net zero policies are in place.
The power crisis experienced by Texas in February 2021 was a taste of things to come when a bitter cold spell and low winds overnight caused a partial blackout of the State. The inadequately winterised gas supply under-performed and a complete blackout was only narrowly averted. Hundreds died and a complete blackout would have killed many thousands.
The wind drought trap is set over many years as subsidies and mandates for unreliable solar and wind energy displaced conventional power without being able to replace it. There is a ‘frog in the saucepan’ effect because coal power retires one plant at a time and this does not cause alarm while there is spare capacity.
Eventually the spare capacity runs out and the trap is set to close when there is not enough to meet the base load overnight. Then windless nights are potentially lethal because there is no wind or solar generation, regardless of the amount of installed capacity.
The incompetence or negligence of the official meteorologists around the world allowed this situation to develop because they didn’t issue wind drought warnings even though they know that high pressure systems cause low winds.
Consequently, the Dunkelflautes came as a surprise in Europe even though mariners and millers must have experienced them for centuries.
All the grids in the US are moving rapidly in the same direction while demand is growing with the rise of AI. Grid managers are becoming increasingly agitated but apparently they have not effectively shared their concerns with the general public and there is no electoral pressure on the lawmakers to change course.
President Trump could decisively change the perception of wind and solar power by issuing an executive order to require weather reports to include the proportion of wind and solar power in the local grid at the time.
Everyone will then be able to check how often their breakfast and dinner will have to be eaten cold when they have to depend on RE to heat it!
Public opinion is broadly in favour of reducing emissions by increasing the use of wind and solar power but hardly anyone knows that low wind periods (wind droughts) at night are an existential threat to the power supply because there is litle or no RE in the grid at night when the wind is low.
Many Republican lawmakers have been captured by the wind and solar lobbies so they don’t support moves to get unreliable energy off the grid.
When voters understand the threat of low winds at breakfast and dinnertime they can put pressure on their local representatives to protect the supply of coal and gas in the grid.
BECOME WIND LITERATE: LOOK AT THE DASHBOARD FOR YOUR LOCAL GRID
THIS IS AUSTRALIA https://www.nem-watch.info/widgets/reneweconomy/
THIS IS TEXAS (ERCOT) https://www.gridstatus.io/live/ercot
4.20 pm July 2 GAS 44%, COAL 12, NUC 8 , SOLAR 23, WIND 13
Conventional power 64% RE 36%
SEE THE FIGURES OVERNIGHT WHEN IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE WIND AND CONVENTIONAL POWER!
July 3 5.55 am Gas 56 Coal 18 Nuc 9 Wind 16 Solar 0
Thank you, Rafe for making the case that nondispatchable wind and solar can never displace dispatchable coal, gas, and nuclear power. That's just the laws of physics and engineering.
Electricity Maps via https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/72h/hourly for the United States shows the real-time contributions of various energy sources to a region's electricity supply. A viewer is also able to review the previous 72 hours for a nation or state via a slider after clicking on the desired political subdivision. Panning the map that is supplied brings up the rest of the world. Clicking on a nation or state shows the detailed electricity source information - even Australia.
Thank you Rafe, there is a mountain of evidence which provides irrefutable evidence against the headlong flight to renewables and the delusion of Net Zero. How much evidence do fools really need? It is now up to the people to demand sensible action to stop this madness. Commentators like you have done more than should be required to present a convincing case.