We have to talk about wind droughts

And the "Wind Drought Trap"

In 2020 the term “wind droughts” began to appear in the literature of the Energy Realists of Australia and in the Integrated System Plan produced by the Australian Energy Market Operator.

We read more about wind droughts nowadays although if you ask a roomful of people about wind droughts you will mostly see quizzical expressions.

Wind droughts should have been investigated thoroughly in the 1990s when windmills began to be attached to the Australian grid but it seems that the average wind velocity was used as the standard measure of wind resources. That measure does not take account of the variability in the velocity and the fact that the grid demands continuous input to match demand from minute to minute. Periods with next to no wind up to 3 days in duration in Australia and weeks in duration in Europe can occur across continental areas.

Think about it. Would you buy a farm to grow crops and pastures without checking the rainfall records? The wind supply and especially the reliability of supply is to wind farming as rainfall is to growing pasture and crops. The Goyder Line was drawn on the map of South Australia to warn prospective farmers about the risk of droughts north of the line.

Similar lines drawn on the map of the world would have warned wind farmers away from Australia, North America, Europe, and possibly the rest of the world, and there would be no subsidised and mandated unreliable energy from windmills attached to the grid in those places.

That would have saved the trillions that have been spent around the world to build mountains of debt and obtain in return more expensive power and less secure supply with massive environmental damage, including the ruin of forests and farmland.

Not a great investment?

Germany took the lead and others including Britain, South Australia, Spain, and Denmark followed enthusiastically.

Now the evidence is in.

The windpower the experiment has failed disastrously, most obviously in Germany and Britain where deindustrialising proceeds apace under the impact of rising power prices.

Wind droughts are the root of the problem but they escaped serious attention until the Europeans metaphorically tripped over the Dunkelflaute in 2021.

https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf

In February 2021, the grid in Texas had a near-death experience on a windless night during severe cold weather when the inadequately winterised gas supply underperformed. Hundreds died while the grid hung by a thread, narrowly avoiding a complete blackout which would have killed many thousands.

ANYONE FOR DUE DILIGENCE?

Checking the security of the supply chain would appear to be the most elementary due diligence required before building infrastructure like dams for irrigation, industrial plant and windmills attached to the grid.

Failure of due diligence in the case of infrastructure for harvesting wind power calls for serious research in the light of the costs incurred by the failure to do it. I am not aware of any major research along those lines apart from an unfunded project by the Energy Realists of Australia, a bunch of retired engineers with assistance from Ben Beattie and also Aidan Morrison at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.

Through 2020 and 2022 this group sent a battery of briefing notes to all the state and federal lawmakers, plus a long list of journalists

The loyal and hard-working staffers ensured that hardly any of the politicians saw the notes and the journalists may have read them but apparently they decided that the readers and listeners didn’t need to know about them.

https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/list-of-briefing-notes

Let's hope that generous grants become available to find out why the meteorologists of the world didn’t get around to issuing wind drought warnings. That could start with the World Meteorological Organization which is in a dangerous liaison with the UN Environmental Program.

Watch that space when the Trump administration gets serious about wind droughts and especially the wind drought trap which threatens all the states and nations that are committed to the net zero crusade.

This warning predated the US election.

www.flickerpower.com/images/RAFE_CHAMPION_CAN_THE_US_ESCAPETHE_WIND_DROUGHT_TRAP_The_Spectator_Australia.pdf