A warning from The Energy Realists of Australia
BEWARE OF WIND DROUGHTS
Around the Western world, subsidised and mandated wind and solar power have been displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently, most of the grids in the west are moving towards a point where the lights will flicker at night when the wind is low. This is a “frog in the saucepan” effect and it only starts to worry people when it is too late. It may be too late for Britain and Germany.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generation.
A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.
C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
Therefore, the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.
The rate of progress towards the tipping point will accelerate as demand is swelled by AI and electrification at large.
In SE Australia, the NEM, the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has just hit the wall after the coal capacity declining from 29GW to 22GW with the closure of ten coal plants since 2012. 17 to 20GW is the base load that is required through the night; there is limited hydro, some gas for the evening peak and no nuclear.
If any coal capacity is off line for scheduled or unscheduled maintenance the supply will teeter on the brink of failure at night and any more coal closures will guarantee power outages on windless nights.
The contribution of wind and solar has increased to exceed 40% on average but obviously there is next to no RE generated at night when there is little or no wind.
Britain and Germany have passed the tipping point and entered a “red zone,” keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.
The meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the irresponsible authorities never checked the wind supply! They even missed the Dunkelflautes that must have been known to mariners and millers for centuries!
https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check. Imagine a farmer taking up a property without checking the water supply, including historical rainfall figures, looking at the risk of crippling droughts!
The immediate solution in Australia is to engage South Korean contractors to build new coal capacity costing about $2 billion per GW which could be in place very quickly with non-union labour and potentially halve the cost of power while putting an end to the destruction of forests and farmland.
SUPPLEMENTARY READING
Wind droughts could have been the most important discovery in the 20th century, saving the trillions of dollars that have been spent to get more expensive and less reliable power.
We just have to talk about wind droughts! After the war Britons used to say “just don’t talk about the war!” to avoid upsetting German friends and associates. Nowadays the message is “just don’t talk about wind droughts!”
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts
I like your ABC of intermittent generation description!